Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
